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I have a friend I’m really fond of who believes in all kinds of conspiracy theories. He’s a nice guy, but he thinks the earth is flat.

He’s also convinced that the casino makes all its money from cheating. In fact, he told me once that the only fair game in the casino is craps, because you can’t fake the roll of the dice.

I’m not sure why he thinks dice are immune to being “fixed” while roulette wheels and playing cards aren’t. I understand how any of those devices could be fixed.

But casinos don’t need to fix any of these devices to make a profit.

They have a really simple means of making a profit and keeping their games completely random.

They examine the odds of winning for a game, then when they set their payout odds, they set them lower than the odds of winning.

What Are Odds and How Do They Work?

One of the ways of looking at the probability of something happening is by looking at the odds that it will or won’t happen.

Probability is just a ratio that compares the number of ways a specific event can happen with the number of ways it can’t happen.

Here’s an easy example:

You flip a coin. What’s the probability that you’ll get heads as a result?

It’s 1/2, 50%, or 1 to 1.

That’s the probability expressed as a fraction, as a percentage, and as odds. Earn more money online.

1 to 1 means there’s one way to lose and one way to win.

When you roll a 6-sided die, what’s the probability of rolling a 6?

There’s one way to roll a 6, and there are 5 ways to roll something that’s not a 6.

So the odds are 5 to 1.

But there’s more to odds than that.

Odds also is a way of describing how much your bet pays off.

If you received 1 to 1 odds on guessing a coin toss, that would be called even money. You could bet $100, and if you won, you’d win $100. If you lose, you’d lose $100.

If you received 5 to 1 odds on guessing the outcome of a die roll, you’d break even over the long run. You’d win $500 every time you won, but you’d lose $100 on the 5 out of 6 times that you lost.

The way the casino makes its profit is by paying you winnings that are lower than the odds that would make a game break-even.

For example, if the casino made you risk $110 to win $100 on a coin toss, in the long run, the casino would make a profit.

50% of the time, they’d lose $100. The other 50% of the time, they’d win $110. It’s easy to see how they could make a profit doing that, right?

Or, if the casino paid off at 4 to 1 on guessing the correct outcome on a roll of a single die, they’d be making a clear profit, too, right?

5 out of 6 times, you’d lose $100. Only once out of 6 times would you win $400, which means the casino would come out ahead in the long run.

The Effect of Short Term Variance

If this is how the bets are set up, and if most people know it, why do people still gamble on casino games?

There are 2 reasons:

The first is that people are woefully uneducated about basic math in this country. Fewer casino customers than you think understand how the math behind these games works.

The second is that when you’re dealing with random events, in the short run, anything can happen, no matter how unlikely.

If you guess that a 6 will come up on the next roll of a 6-sided die, you’re PROBABLY going to lose.

But sometimes you’ll win.

And sometimes you’ll win more often than you statistically should in the short term.

In math, there’s something called the Law of Large Numbers.

This is the premise that if you repeat something random often enough, eventually, your actual results will resemble the statistically predicted results.

If you roll a 6-sided die 6 times, you might get the same number 3 or 4 times.

But if you roll a 6-sided die 6000 times, you’ll usually see a pretty even distribution for which number comes up.

This short term variation is what gamblers call luck.

That’s how some gamblers walk away from the casino winners even though the odds are against them.

How the Casino Makes Its Profit from Blackjack

Blackjack seems like a game where the casino couldn’t have an edge. In fact, it seems like a game where a smart player might get an edge over the house just by knowing how to play his cards.

After all, the odds of getting various cards are the same for both the player and the dealer.

AND the player gets a 3 to 2 payout anytime he gets a 2-card total of 21.

How on earth does the casino stand to profit on a game like this?

It’s simpler than you think, actually. The house edge in blackjack comes from the fact that the player has to play his hand before the dealer plays hers.

If your hand busts, you lose your chips immediately, before the dealer plays her hand. Even if the dealer busts, too, you’ve lost your money.

That, by itself, is enough of an advantage for the casino to make a profit.

Even if you play with perfect basic strategy, you’ll probably bust your hand around 30% of the time.

Even if the casino busts, too, you’ve already lost your bet.

The other advantage the casino has is if the dealer gets a natural, you don’t even get to play your hand. Your only hope is if you also have a natural, which is treated as a push. You don’t win any money, nor do you lose any money in that situation.

How the Casino Makes Its Profit from Craps

Craps is known for being exciting and for having a wide variety of bets you can make.

But every bet at the craps table (save one) pays off at less than the odds of winning. The only bet where that isn’t true is called (appropriately enough) the odds bet, and it pays off at true odds.

But to place that bet, you must have first placed a bet on the pass line or the don’t pass line. (Or the come or don’t come.)

Those are the best bets at the craps table, by the way, but they still give the house an edge of 1.41% or 1.36%. The other bets at the craps table are all far worse, and they all result in a profit for the casino because they don’t pay off at the same odds they have of winning.

Here’s an example of a craps bet, its odds of winning, and the payout odds for that bet:

The “any 7” bet is a single-roll bet that the results of the next roll of the dice will total 7.

The odds of winning that bet are 5 to 1.

This equation shows that the rate of inflation is equal to the growth rate of the money supply less the growth rate of real output. The growth rate of the money supply is determined by the Federal Reserve. The growth rate of real output is determined by resources and technology. Historically the long-term growth rate in real output has been approximately 3 percent per year. If the Federal Reserves allows. P) and ongoing growth in the money supply: ♦Ms = P x L(R,Y) ♦P = Ms/L(R,Y) ♦∆P/P = ∆Ms/Ms - ∆L/L ♦The inflation rate equals growth rate in money supply minus the growth rate for money demand. Rate of growth of money supply x real money supply. Exchange rate dynamics using the money supply growth rate as the central bank's policy instrument. The paper analyzes the problem using a variable out put version of the Dornbusch model. Perhaps the most significant finding in the paper is that money supply growth causes the exchange rate to either overshoot or undershoot. In addition, the real exchange rate depends inversely on the real.

The payout is 4 to 1.

Sound familiar?

I used the same example in the introduction when I t